Modeled vs Max?
What do we mean by Modeled vs Max?
You will see the term "Max" used throughout this website. That's because we are realists. We hope for the best and we plan for the worst. It's because we care. Max means the maximum number of units a developer can build on acreage.
In November, a member of the LRHA discovered an issue in the state’s HCA compliance model related to calculating the maximum number of buildable units on parcels with wetlands. There was a flaw that could result in an undercount of how many units could actually be built on such parcels, especially when combined with others. These findings were shared with the state and the HCAWG.
At the time, in the HCAWG’s Option C (now called Article 3), there was a significant difference between the maximum number of units (“Max”) that could be built on a parcel and the modeled ("Modeled") number. Option C's Modeled Unit Count was 635 units whereas in reality, Option C's Max Unit Count was 1400. And they felt that 1400 was a reasonable number of additional units to shoehorn into 1/2 mile radius of Lincoln Station. To many, this defied all logic.
Only 3 days before Town Meeting,the HCAWG adjusted Option C's units per acre and the Max was brought down, but it's still ~800--well over the required 635. This is due to town land** being included in the rezoning and parcels on Codman Road being zoned for more than modeled.
For example: The Codman Rd. District is zoned for 10 units per acre, and there is a parcel of 2.77 acres that is only modeled for 3 units in Option C--though it technically is zoned for a max of 28.
(2.77 acres x 10 units/acre zoning = ~28 units that technically, by right, a developer can build)
801 is the current Max, based on the most recent table that the HCAWG has posted.
Modeled units is only relevant to the state to make sure that houses can actually be built, and we aren’t just rezoning 42 acres of wetlands or public land. It is NOT a cap for the developer in any way. The MAX is the true cap.
Combining parcels impacted by wetlands is advantageous to a developer in terms of how many units can be built:
If a Codman Road Parcel is modeled for 3 units due to wetlands, a developer still is allowed to build 10 if it can fit 10. Likewise, if the adjacent parcel is one acre of dry land, they could combine lots and build a total of 20 units on the dry land, not just 13.
How do we calculate Max units that can be built?
Multiply the units per acre in each subdistrict and the number of acres. Add them all up.
LW: 8 x 20.5= 164
LR: 11 x 20.3 = 223
CR: 10 x 23.7 = 237
VC: 25 x 7.1 = 177
801 total
There are four issues with using modeled units:
Public land. Public land isn’t factored at all into modeled units and is frankly the most likely to be built after the mall. (DPW/Commuter lots). Option C includes public land.
Even with the open land override there’s still some parcels on lower Codman that are zoned for more than modeled (e.g. 98 Codman Road).
There are also 2.3 acres (30) units in the most recent Option C that an LRHA member found in the model which are still unaccounted for.
Parcels will be combined. This allows the wetlands to be a non-issue as far as development is concerned because the dry land can hold all the units from the wetland parcels.
** Regarding Town Land: Lincoln receives no HCA credit for town land being included in Article 3, and there are many who question the wisdom of rezoning Lincoln's commuter lot. Where will commuters park to use the MBTA? If anything, the lot should be protected and expanded. That would be the transit-oriented, environmentally friendly solution.